ASSESSMENT OF HISTORICAL METROLOGICAL DROUGHT AND RAINFALL VARIABILITY OVER NASHIK DISTRICT MAHARASHTRA, INDIA

M.C. AHER

Abstract


The long-term spatio-temporal variation in rainfall pattern significantly affects the socio-economical activities. Specially, the developing country like India, having agriculturally based economy demands a great concern about the intensity and magnitude of rainfall. Study of historical trends and variability in rainfall provides vital information about the changing climate over particular area. Additionally, changes in rainfall pattern also creates the drought situations. Maharashtra state is one of the semi-arid region in India. In this region agriculture activities are highly depending on the Monsoon (June-September) rainfall. Present study aims to assess the metrological drought characteristics using Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI), Rainfall Anomaly Index (RAI), Percentage Departure and Rainfall Variability Index (RVI). Trend analysis is carried out using Innovative Trend Analysis (ITA) technique. The monthly, seasonal and annual rainfall data was used for period of 100 years. Decreasing trend in medium and high rainfall regime is observed at seasonal and annual. Nashik district experiences mild, moderate and severe metrological drought for 34, 7 and 8 times respectively. Five Severe droughts were observed in first two decades i.e., from 1901- 1910 and 1911- 1920. The results of the study will help policy makers to minimize the impact of drought in coming future.


Keywords


Nashik district, rainfall, Standardised Precipitation Index, Innovative Trend Analysis, Rainfall Anomaly Index, Rainfall Variability Index.

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