TIME SERIES PREDICTION OF SPECIFIC EROSION IN THE KOUDIET LEMDAOUR DAM WATERSHED BATNA REGION, ALGERIA

H. FEMMAM, K. FEMMAM, H. MEKAOUSSI, M. AMIOUR

Abstract


Water erosion in watersheds represents a major challenge for the management of soil and water resources, leading to degradation of agricultural land, increased sedimentation of dams and significant socio-economic impacts. This study aims to quantify the solid inputs in the form of specific erosion in the watershed of the Koudiet Lemdaouar dam, located in the Batna region (Northeastern Algeria). Fournier's empirical model was used to estimate specific erosion, followed by prediction of temporal variations using several models, including the autoregressive integrated moving average models (AR, MA, ARMA, ARIMA) and the Neural Network models (RNN, LSTM, CNN). Among these models, the ARIMA proved to be the best performing, with an RMSE of 1.66, a MAE of 1.336 and a MAPE of 1.499. These results provide a better understanding of erosion dynamics and offer valuable tools to optimize the management of natural and agricultural environments, as well as to protect the dam against siltation.


Keywords


Modelling, Specific Erosion, Fournier Model, Prediction, Time Series.

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